For a lot of sneakers, it’s pretty obvious whether they will flip or sit. It’s not a question if it’s a known shoe, or there’s a lot of early buzz about it. But for others, it’s not always clear. There’s a lot of sneakers that drop where the price on StockX/Goat before release seems reasonable, but quickly goes 📈 after the drop, in which case it’s already too late. A lot of times those early prices are often retailers, or people who have access to retailer pricing, selling early to make a quick buck since they would have paid a wholesale price. Early buyers often look at the low prices early and think its a sign a shoe will sit. This is often a mistake.

Here’s a checklist of some questions you can ask yourself if you’re on the fence. Obviously this is not definitive list by any means. Every sneaker has it’s own story and circumstances. Other factors like stimulus check season or even The Last Dance Jordan doc has affects that have to be considered. Other times a sneaker will come out of nowhere and pop too.

This may all sound obvious to some, especially if you’ve done this for a while. But really, it’s not always obvious for a lot of people. After a while, you develop a sneaker sense, this is just meant as practice for others.

Note: If you’re not reselling and just after a personal, you can still use the information here to determine if you should put more effort into copping on release, or if you can wait it out.

Checklist

• Is the model wearable?
• Is the colour wearable?
• Have only some stores announced a drop, or most stores?
• Will it be of special interest to any particular group?
• Does it come in mens sizes only? (Full-family sizing often a sign of a GR)

Plugs 🔌

If you know anyone that works at a store, they’re obviously going to be the best source of info for how much stock a store like that will get. However, something having low stock doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll flip. Adidas gives lots of stores a size run of Ozweegos no one gives a shit about. Use any early stock info to validate your own sneaker sense. That’s the point here.

Examples

Let’s take a look at a couple recent releases where it may not have been clear if it’ll flip or sit and apply the checklist.

Lebron 7 Lakers / Media Day

• ✅ Is the model wearable?
• ✅ Is the colour wearable?
• ✅ Have only some stores announced a drop, or most stores?
  • Only dropped at a few places: SNKRS, FL, Kith, Concepts, Nice Kicks, Jimmy Jazz, and a couple others.
• ✅ Will it be of special interest to any particular group?
  • Lebron fans, Lakers fans.
• ◻️ Does it come in mens sizes only?
  • Comes in GS and PS, but even those did not drop at all stores.

Really this shoe would appeal to a ton of Laker fans. Wouldn’t it be great right now seeing some dude wearing these who looks like The Perfect Pair outside Staples Center mugging at a cameraman before an important playoff game? Sigh.

The other important factor is if the NBA comes back this season and Lakers win the championship, these could 📈

Red Cement 3s

• ✅ Is the model wearable?
• ◻️ Is the colour wearable?
  • It’s wearable, but mostly red shoes definitely harder to pull off.
• ❌ Have only some stores announced a drop, or most stores?
  • Dropped everywhere
• ✅ Will it be of special interest to any particular group?
  • Not an OG, but could pass as one. Also has Nike Air on the back.
• ❌ Does it come in mens sizes only?
  • Full family sizing usually means GR.

The key here was that every store was getting this shoe, so you just had to pay attention to that part to know. Store plugs also said stock was huge, which was a good sign it would go on sale.

UNC 3s

• ✅ Is the model wearable?
• ✅ Is the colour wearable?
• ✅ Have only some stores announced a drop, or most stores?
  • This was the key for this drop, the usual places didn’t get this shoe.
• ✅ Will it be of special interest to any particular group?
  • UNC fans
• ✅ Does it come in mens sizes only?

Really the most important questions are the first few: is the model and colour NICE, and would people wear it. Then how available is the sneaker? You have to pay attention to which stores have posted on Instagram or on their mailing lists, and which have not. Another important thing is to ask around. Maybe don’t ask in your group’s general chat where you’ll get flamed, but ask your friends how are they preparing.

There’s also entire groups that focus on these types of calls. Here’s a very detailed evaluation by Buy.Sell.Hold Snipers on the Leborn 7 Lakers:

So this was our call, should we post a clip from the live stream? Or y’all not ready for that yet? 📈📈📈📈📈 pic.twitter.com/9fAwGOvw4P

— Buy.Sell.Hold. (@BSHSnipers) May 16, 2020

Practice

Try the checklist on Jordan 4 Metallic 4 Purple dropping tomorrow (May 20, 2020). Will it flip or sit?